NRL Round 5 best bets with Woodsy & Nic

Aaron Woods and Nic Ashman are back with their round five plays after a tough week. No fluff, no overthinking. Here's where the value is.

Thursday Night: Manly Sea Eagles vs Dolphins — Kayo Stadium, 8pm

Dolphins $1.33 | Sea Eagles $3.25

The Dolphins are short favourites heading north, but at $3.25 the Sea Eagles are hard to ignore. Kieran Foran takes charge for the first time and this group owes their fans a performance.

"Kieran Foran is going to have the boys pumped up for the game," Ashman said. "The $3.25 head-to-head, there's no respect for Manly at the moment. That's juicy."

Both sides average 73 points per game across their three previous meetings, making the overs line of 50.5 an attractive proposition. Both Tommy Turbo and Cooler have scored in all three games between these clubs.

"I'm going to go points over. There's a real chance that whoever wins is going to win 13 plus," Woods said. "At $8.50, I just think it's a good gamble. They've got the right firepower on the park."

The Play: Sea Eagles head-to-head at $3.25, overs 50.5, Turbo any time try scorer.

Friday Night: Penrith Panthers vs Melbourne Storm — CommBank Stadium, 8pm

Panthers $1.40 | Storm $2.90

Penrith are humming but $1.40 is short enough to look for a creative angle. The last three games between these two have been separated by eight points or less, which makes the Storm with the eight and a half point start an attractive play.

"I feel this one's going to be close to about the 60-minute mark," Ashman said. "I just love the fitness of the Panthers and what Nathan Cleary is like, but Melbourne 290, I think that's being generous."

Woods went the other way, finding value in a more conservative approach. "I'm going to take Cleary at $3.80 to get a try at some point. He's scored in the last three games against the Storm and I don't want to take on the Panthers in the form they're in, but I also don't want to back them at $1.40 knowing how good the Storm are."

Mitch Kenny's absence is a real loss for the Panthers and Melbourne, who have won four of the last five clashes between these sides, will be desperate to respond after back-to-back losses.

The Play: Storm plus 8.5, Cleary any time try scorer at $3.80.

Easter Monday: Wests Tigers vs Parramatta Eels — CommBank Stadium

Eels $1.73 | Tigers $2.10

The Tigers at $2.10 is the value play of the round.

"The Tigers at $2.10 is outrageous," Woods said. "They should be favourites. Look at the injuries Parramatta have got and did they not watch the last couple of games? Benji's turned them around completely. It's a different West Tigers side."

The last eight games between these clubs, the Tigers have scored between 17 and 32 points every single time. Ashman zeroed in on that pattern immediately.

"Go to the app, Tigers to score between 21 and 30 points, paying $2.70. Take the double. Tigers to win and score in that band. Money for jam."

The overs line sits at 47.5 at $1.88. Given both sides' recent attacking intent, that looks well within reach.

"The way they're going, that overs line has to be in play," Woods added.

The Play: Tigers head-to-head at $2.10, Tigers to score 21-30 points at $2.70, overs 47.5.

Gamble responsibly. For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au