Origin Eve – The high stakes gamble for Laurie and Billy

Kenty and Woz give a final preview on State of Origin Eve. With a series decider looming at Accor Stadium, both coaches are taking significant risks that could define their legacies.

The injury gamble for New South Wales

Laurie Daley has opted for a strategy based on deep trust, sticking with the squad that won Game Two despite several key players facing interrupted preparations. Payne Haas, Brian To'o, Hudson Young, and the Penrith spine of Nathan Cleary and Jerome Luai have all had limited training time.

"Loz has put a lot of trust in his preparation in injured players," Kent observed. "If New South Wales win, it’s going to be a master stroke. If they lose, the storyline will be whether they went into the game with too many injured players."

While the team's existing combinations from the Penrith connection provide a safety net, Kent warned that the lack of full-squad ball sessions could lead to a disjointed attack. "They’re capable of doing the job, but if they’re not getting through their sets, it’ll come down to the fact they hardly trained together."

Billy Slater’s rookie revolution

Queensland coach Billy Slater has taken a different path, gambling on bold selections rather than fitness. The Maroons will field a raw rookie centre pairing in Toya and Shibasaki, tasked with shutting down the dominant duo of Stephen Crichton and Latrell Mitchell.

"It is a gamble to have such a rookie centre pairing," Kent noted. He also highlighted the shock return of Josh Papalii from representative retirement. "Papalii didn’t deserve to go out with a poor performance against his name given what he’s already done. Let’s hope he has a big game for his legacy."

The decision to omit Reece Walsh in favour of Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow at fullback also raised eyebrows, but Kent believes Slater’s priority was a squad that was ready to train "immediately" without the cloud of injury hanging over camp.

The pressure of the decider

History is on the line for both coaches. No Queensland coach has ever survived two series losses in a row, a reality Slater faces if the Maroons fall tonight. On the other side, Daley looks to reclaim the home ground advantage at Accor Stadium, where Queensland has actually held a winning record over the last 21 games.

"Whoever is the losing coach tonight, there will be a lot of attention thrown their way," Kent said. "There’s a lot of consequence coming out of tonight’s result."

The "Master" of Odds: Jack Gibson’s Legacy

With PointsBet now sponsoring the show, Kent shared a fascinating piece of rugby league history regarding legendary coach Jack Gibson. Before his coaching fame, Gibson was an illegal SP bookmaker with ties to organised crime.

"Jack understood odds. He always used to say: 'You never go broke backing Queensland,'" Kent recalled. At $3.00, Kent believes the Maroons are significantly over the odds. "They shouldn’t be $3.00 tonight. It’s an Origin game, and Queensland have no right to win and then go out and do it."

Predicting a "Wally Lewis" moment

Looking ahead to the match, Kent expects a low-scoring, defensive battle with a tight penalty count. His pick for the Wally Lewis Medal? Cameron Munster.

"I want him to write this glittering chapter in Origin folklore," Kent said, referencing the emotional weight Munster is carrying after the recent loss of his father. "He’s one guy who mentally will handle it. When he melts it all down and puts on that jersey, he’ll come out tonight and it’ll be all there."

Watch the full episode on Fanatics TV.